Dampak Foreign Direct Investment dan Investasi Portofolio terhadap Stabilitas Makroekonomi di Indonesia : Fenomena Global Imbalances

摘要

The imbalance of global economic recovery has led to a variety of implications on the economies of emerging markets countries, including Indonesia, its massive capital inflows. Capital inflows can be a source of development financing, as well as to support the deepening of financial markets. However, when capital inflows are massive enough and can not be absorbed by the economy as a whole, it will weaken the impact of export competitiveness and potential pressures on macroeconomic stability. This study aims to analyze the impact of foreign direct investment and portfolio investment against macroeconomic fundamentals. The method used in this study is the Vector Autoregression through the use of impulse response and variance decomposition with time series data 2005.Q4 - 2011.Q4. Some of the variables used are economic growth, inflation, exchange rate, BI Rate, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Portfolio Investment. The research results indicate that the positive impact of FDI on economic growth is smaller than the portfolio investment. To price stability, the impact of FDI is negative and the positive impact of investment portfolio. Positive impact of FDI on the exchange rate and the investment portfolio of negative influence. While monetary policy through the BI Rate of negative response to the development of FDI and portfolio investments respond positively. This shows more effect on the investment portfolio of macroeconomic instability, especially on the stability of prices and exchange rates. Its massive capital inflows cause the exchange rate appreciation trend that goes beyond the fundamental conditions and implications for the asset price bubble and increase the vulnerability of financial markets and inflation.